Reviewed through 20 July 2026
Reserve managers are not rushing back into dollars. The 2026Q1 COFER release from the IMF puts the US dollar share of allocated foreign exchange reserves at 57.13 percent, up from 56.42 percent in 2025Q4 and 56.32 percent in 2025Q2. The latter was the lowest dollar share since 1995.
About half of the Q1 move was mechanical. The dollar appreciated roughly 1.7 percent against major reserve currencies during the quarter, partly on Middle East tensions. Valuation effects, not active accumulation, account for most of the lift. The euro slipped to 20.03 percent, the yen fell to 5.44 percent, and sterling held near 4.4 percent. Renminbi edged up to 1.99 percent.
~50%
of the 2026Q1 USD share gain was valuation, not active buying
USD appreciated ~1.7% against major reserve currencies in the quarter.
USD share of global FX reserves, 2018 to 2026Q1
ChartChart
US dollar share of global FX reserves (%)
The dollar hit 56.32% in 2025Q2, the lowest reading this century. 2026Q1 rebounded to 57.13%, driven largely by valuation.
Source: IMF COFER (2026Q1 brief); Fed FEDS Note 2025 edition for pre-2025 data.
The private side is telling the same story from a different angle
On the private side, the UBS 2026 survey shows sixty-five percent of family offices expect to reduce their USD exposure over the coming year. Twenty-nine percent say they have already reduced, or are considering reducing, USD-denominated holdings. Thirty percent are diversifying across multiple currencies.
Central banks tell a similar story through a different lens. Eighty-nine percent expect global official gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months, and a record forty-five percent expect their own institution to add. The share of monetary gold on central bank balance sheets has risen from ten percent in January 2019 to over twenty-two percent by August 2025, driven primarily by valuation rather than active buying.
Currency composition of allocated reserves, 2026Q1
ChartChart
Currency composition of allocated reserves, 2026Q1 (%)
EUR 20.03%, JPY 5.44%, GBP 4.4%, CNY 1.99%.
Source: IMF COFER Data Brief, 2026Q1.
The trend is multi-polar drift, not collapse. Treat it that way and the policy stays honest.
Where Vereles sees the work
For family office treasury, the practical work is to write FX rules that do not panic on a quarter of valuation-driven dollar strength and do not relax on a quarter of weakness. Hedging bands, currency buckets matched to underlying liabilities, and a written rule for when to act. Without that, the desk is reacting to noise.
What a principal takes away.
- 01Half the 2026Q1 USD share move was mechanical. Treat that as the base case for reading any single quarter.
- 02Private family offices are quietly diversifying away from USD. 65% plan to reduce USD exposure over the next year.
- 03Gold share of reserves doubled in seven years. Most of the gain is valuation, but allocation intent is firm.
- 04A treasury policy that reacts to a single quarter of valuation tends to lose. Bands and triggers, not opinions.